Shanmei International (600546): The performance is much higher than expected and waiting for subsequent performance
Investment Highlights Event: The company released three quarterly reports and achieved revenue of 316 in the first three quarters.
1.6 billion, an increase of -12 in ten years.
03%; net profit attributable to mother 7.
98 ppm, an increase of 97 in ten years.
71%; net profit after deduction is 8.
52 ppm, a 123-year increase.
The acquisition of Hequ open-air + self-produced coal production increased, the third quarterly report performance was significantly higher than expected: the company’s performance growth significantly exceeded market expectations.
The growth mainly comes from: 1) The acquisition of 51% equity in Hequ Open-Air. In June 2018, the company paid in cash23.
In the 7.2 billion way, the company purchased 31% and 20% of the shares of Hequ Open-Air held by Shanmei Group and Zhonghui Dadi. After the acquisition was completed, the company became a shareholder of Hequ Open-Air, and the remaining 49% was held by Shanxi Coal.
2) The company’s self-produced cement output increased due to profit growth.
According to the company’s announced main operating production data, the company achieved raw coal production of 1,103 in the third quarter of 2019.
98 for the first time, growing by 25 per year.
17%, an increase of 10 from the previous month.
73%; commercial coal sales were 3357.
95 for the first time, with an annual increase of -5.
90%, an increase of -6 from the previous month.
46%; realized coal business income of 116.
46 ppm, an increase of -22 in ten years.
93%, an increase of 1.
69%; realized 346 tons of coal income.
82 yuan, an annual increase of -18.
10%, an increase of 8 from the previous month.
72%; gross profit per ton of coal 54.
02 yuan, an annual increase of 8.
60%, an increase of -11 from the previous month.
At present, the market has three main concerns about HIT and Shanmei International: 1) Will HIT become the final solution for photovoltaic cells?
2) After Shanmei International announced on July 26 that it has reduced the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement with Junshi Energy, will it insist on advancing the project?
3) What will the final cost be if Shanxi Coal International is determined to proceed?
We try to answer these three questions one by one and summarize them as follows: 1) Divided with the technical routes such as Topcon, N-pert, IBC that may appear after PERC, the best point of HIT is that it has 8-9 years of technology accumulation, Sanyo ‘s HIT patent expired in 2011. Before Sanyo ‘s patent was lifted, a large number of companies were engaged in research and development of HIT in the laboratory. After Sanyo ‘s patent was lifted in 2011, the best domestic 都市夜网 companies were mainly three.: Cylon in Hangzhou, Shangpeng in Jiaxing, and Guodian in Yixing. Since 2011, the most mature and stable operation management team in the industry has been engaged in HIT technology accumulation for 8-9 years, although the learning process has twists and turns.Progress is slow, but the conditions for industrialization are already very mature, so the market is actually not worried about the problems that HIT can cause, but the main concern is how good the effect is and how low the cost is.
2) HIT project promotion requires a large amount of funds, mature and efficient operation management team, highly specialized customized equipment. At present, as a state-owned enterprise that started coal business, Shanxi Coal has its own capital accumulation and investment financing ability; the operation 四川耍耍网 management team can adoptMarket-oriented solutions; there are only a handful of existing equipment vendors with strong HIT turnkey services. Therefore, after the personnel adjustment is completed, the pressure of top-down transformation is obvious, and the scale of the funding team’s equipment is settled. We feel thatThe strong advancement of coal by HIT is a high probability event.
3) We predict: With a yield of 97% and a conversion efficiency of more than 24%, it is expected that the company’s 3GW production line will be put into production next year. The cost of HIT is expected to replace 0.
About 9 yuan / watt, of course, this step needs to be verified gradually from the start of the project to production to commissioning.
Earnings forecast and investment rating: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.
87 yuan, corresponding to PE is 13, 9, 7 times, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk reminder: macroeconomic downturn affects coal industry demand, coal price fluctuates greatly, etc.